Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 40 by April 30?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 10¢ price implying only 10% probability, yet the Yes side offers an astronomical 22,327% annualized yield—a red flag suggesting either severe illiquidity or structural issues. With zero 24-hour volume, $798k open interest, and a wide 4¢ spread on a market expiring in just 15 days, there's minimal price discovery; the 7-day movement from 8¢ to 10¢ reflects thin trading rather than fundamental conviction. The cliff risk index of 9 and realized volatility of 1,326% indicate this market is highly unstable and difficult to trade, making the extreme yield more theoretical than actionable given the liquidity constraints.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (BVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 on the date specified in the title has a final "Low" value equal to or lower than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "Low" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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