Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in only a 12% win probability for AR-02, an extremely Republican-leaning district, yet shows an extraordinary 1,338% implied yield that reflects the asymmetric risk-reward of a long-shot bet with 200 days to expiry. The market displays concerning illiquidity with just $114 in 24-hour volume against $18.4M open interest, and the 7 Cliff Risk Index suggests potential resolution volatility, though the tight 1¢ spread indicates some baseline market efficiency. This appears to be a classic deep-value contrarian position where the high yield compensates for low probability, but traders should be cautious given the thin liquidity could amplify price swings if new political developments emerge.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade