SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?

This market is pricing in an 87% probability that SCOTUS will overturn Humphrey's Executor, yet it shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 15¢ spread, suggesting the high price may not reflect genuine conviction. The asymmetric implied yields (21.1% for Yes versus 946.7% for No) and exceptionally high realized volatility of 236% indicate significant uncertainty beneath the surface, with the price having already declined 4¢ over the past week despite the long 258-day timeframe. With a Cliff Risk Index of 7 and information arriving at 1.3 events per hour, this market appears vulnerable to sharp repricing once the case receives substantive oral arguments or rulings, making the current 87¢ price potentially unstable for risk-averse traders.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Supreme Court will be considered to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States if they issue a decision in Trump v. Slaughter overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935), including ruling that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will. If the Supreme court ruling in Trump v. Slaughter affirms that for-cause removal protections for FTC commissioners remain constitutional or if the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Trump v. Slaughter is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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