Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump in Trump v. Slaughter

This market is pricing Trump's victory at an exceptionally high 87¢ with a massive 438.6% implied yield on the No side, suggesting extreme asymmetry in risk compensation that may reflect either strong conviction or illiquidity concerns. The $20 daily volume against $7,922.86 open interest indicates thin liquidity despite the 4¢ spread, and the 94% realized volatility combined with a 2.54 vol ratio suggests significant uncertainty beneath the high price. With 472 days to resolution and a recent 3¢ decline over seven days, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently priced market, warranting caution around the cliff risk index of 6.

Resolution rules

If the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade