Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5. This contract trades at 82¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. The Over 1.5 contract has surged 21 cents over seven days to 74¢, reflecting strong conviction that this MLS matchup will produce at least two combined goals, yet the market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 17¢ spread despite only $99.87 in open interest.
Analysis
The Over 1.5 contract has surged 21 cents over seven days to 74¢, reflecting strong conviction that this MLS matchup will produce at least two combined goals, yet the market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 17¢ spread despite only $99.87 in open interest. The astronomical implied yields (1992% for Yes, 14564% for No) and extreme realized volatility of 1216% suggest this is a thin, speculative market where the pricing may not reflect true probabilities, particularly concerning given the match occurs in just 7 days with a Cliff Risk Index of 3 indicating potential resolution complications.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming MLS game between Houston Dynamo and San Diego FC, scheduled for April 22 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Houston Dynamo and San Diego FC combine to score 2 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 2, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x09909d38314790a07ae3f14534b705e5664503e972ef17226c82b4482a951672 yes 100