Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.4%?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.4%?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 305% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 305% implied yield on the Yes side. The 9¢ spread and cliff risk index of 9 indicate severe pricing uncertainty, likely reflecting minimal trading activity rather than genuine market consensus that eurozone Q1 2026 GDP will contract by 0.4% or more. With only 13 days to expiry and resolution data due April 30, any late-arriving information could trigger sharp repricing in this thinly-traded contract.
Resolution rules
If Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above -0.4 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEZGDPQOQF-26APR30-T-0.4 yes 100