Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
0x0bde18e0a0220d1f97173850504a1ed4fa90ef2c6a7bc0932952790053ca0c0e · closes Aug 4, 2026 · 111 days remaining
Price
Last
12¢
Bid
10¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
4¢
24h Volume
$300.42
Open Interest
$10,361.698
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 2019.7% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 53.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 6 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.14 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 509% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.99 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.2/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 1731% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
110 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/14/2026, 11:47:57 PM
About this market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x0bde18e0a0220d1f97173850504a1ed4fa90ef2c6a7bc0932952790053ca0c0e yes 100