SF Prediction Market Index
Four signals derived from thousands of prediction markets, updated every 15 minutes from live orderbooks, price changes, and a curated geopolitical basket.
v2 launched 2026-04-09. Earlier values used different formulas and were dropped — see methodology below.
Methodology
Median per-ticker realized volatility (stddev of 1¢ deltas) over the last hour. High = markets are reacting to information faster.
Theater-equal weighted curated basket of conflict markets, signed by bad-outcome direction. Three components: current level, 24h delta, recent volatility.
Up/down skew of tickers with |24h net Δ| ≥ 10¢. Positive = more markets ratcheted up than down.
Percentile rank of trailing 24h change count vs the prior 29 days of rolling 24h windows. 50 is normal; >80 means an unusually busy day.
GET /api/public/indexGET /api/public/index/history?days=7