Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $6M in open interest, suggesting the positions are largely static and potentially stale.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $6M in open interest, suggesting the positions are largely static and potentially stale. The 3¢ price implies a 3% probability for Duey, yet the implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reaches an astronomical 10,830%—a red flag indicating the market may be mispriced or dominated by speculative positions with minimal actual conviction. With 109 days to expiry and a wide 5¢ spread, this appears to be a low-information market where the price reflects thin trading rather than genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x0d8c056eda67995c33791be4e94342fe03cd21af6ef091c707039c410341004a yes 100