Will Kathleen McLaughlin be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Kathleen McLaughlin be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. McLaughlin's price has collapsed from 35¢ to 7¢ over seven days, suggesting a significant negative information event or shift in primary dynamics, though the zero 24-hour volume and wide 11¢ spread indicate extremely thin liquidity that may not reflect true market consensus.
Analysis
McLaughlin's price has collapsed from 35¢ to 7¢ over seven days, suggesting a significant negative information event or shift in primary dynamics, though the zero 24-hour volume and wide 11¢ spread indicate extremely thin liquidity that may not reflect true market consensus. The astronomical 10,560% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution combined with a 1,432% realized volatility and 13 Cliff Risk Index score point to severe mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion rather than genuine opportunity. With 46 days to the June 2026 close and only $1.2M open interest, this market lacks the depth to confidently assess whether McLaughlin remains a viable Democratic nominee candidate in Montana.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x0de7f4b3c3a4ef3dfb550d20422effaa3a5d439d41f4eb77a2a7aff2a8f6c665 yes 100