Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Leader sits at 88% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Reilly Neill
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Alani Bankhead
Spread
78pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Analysis
The 92% probability indicates that one candidate is strongly favored to win Montana's Democratic Senate primary, with limited market uncertainty about the outcome. This reflects either substantial early polling leads, favorable structural conditions for the frontrunner, or high entry barriers for challengers. The probability level could shift if unexpected polling emerges, endorsements consolidate behind an alternative candidate, or fundraising dynamics change materially. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this contract; candidates' performances in debates, candidate forums, and any late-stage candidate withdrawals between now and election day represent the main catalysts that could move these odds. Current trading volume suggests limited active speculation, which typically accompanies races with clearer perceived outcomes.
- ›One candidate holds a decisive preference advantage in available polling or early voting metrics relative to other primary contenders
- ›The frontrunner has secured endorsements or fundraising advantages that create structural obstacles for challengers to gain traction
- ›Montana's Democratic primary electorate size, participation rates, and geographic distribution favor the leading candidate's electoral coalition
- ›No major scandal, gaffe, or external event has emerged recently that would destabilize the frontrunner's position
- ›Trading volume of $625 per 24 hours across contracts indicates relatively modest speculative interest compared to general-election races
What moved the line
- Jun 3Alani Bankhead↑40pp10→50¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3Reilly Neill↓35pp88→53¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1Reilly Neill↓5pp93→88¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2Alani Bankhead↑4pp6→10¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (88% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.