Will the Democratic Party win the NE-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with the Yes position trading at just 7¢ despite Nebraska's 3rd district being competitive territory—the implied 2,416.8% yield on the Democratic side is a red flag indicating severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction. With zero 24-hour volume and $41,261 in open interest against a 201-day runway to the November 2026 election, the market lacks sufficient depth to trust the price, and the 13-point cliff risk index suggests potential resolution ambiguity around candidate party designation. The 1¢ spread is deceptively tight given the vacuum of trading activity, making this more of a placeholder quote than a functional prediction market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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