Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a massive 51¢ spread and an implied yield of 3,658.7% on the Yes side, suggesting severe illiquidity despite $591k open interest. The 27¢ price has surged 42% over seven days (from 19¢), yet daily volume remains anemic at $6.12, indicating the price movement reflects thin order books rather than genuine conviction. With resolution occurring on the exact close date (May 14, 2026) and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this market poses significant timing risk for traders caught on the wrong side at expiration.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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