Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?

This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion, with zero 24-hour volume, only $1,070 open interest, and a massive 14¢ spread that suggests minimal market confidence in the 8¢ price. The absurd 30,726% implied yield on the "Yes" outcome is a mathematical artifact of the tiny price combined with the 14-day expiry, indicating this is likely a stale or abandoned position rather than a genuine probability assessment. With resolution occurring exactly at market close (4/30/2026) and realized volatility at 3,269%, this market is too thin and poorly-priced to serve as a reliable forecast for Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Indicators

Regime

Trade