Will Travis Grantham be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Travis Grantham be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. Travis Grantham is priced at a 4% probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 8,035.6% for YES positions, suggesting the market severely undervalues his nomination chances or reflects extreme illiquidity.
Analysis
Travis Grantham is priced at a 4% probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 8,035.6% for YES positions, suggesting the market severely undervalues his nomination chances or reflects extreme illiquidity. The $60 daily volume against $12.9M open interest indicates thin trading that could produce sharp repricing, and the 1¢ spread is relatively wide for such a low-priced contract. With 109 days until the August 4, 2026 primary and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 24, this market appears to be pricing in a heavy favorite elsewhere in the field, making Grantham a potential contrarian bet if he has genuine campaign momentum.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x11efb12bd5ccb078997b2215ab92f7c9a5c88d777a8131a1f81c7b6be4a8662f yes 100