Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
0x15d2e66dcf1d63c5695d6d0e9e2f8e06dd246d00fd5dfc254f2b22baa33bfa1b · closes Jan 3, 2027 · 263 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 375.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 51.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.04 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1965% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 12.89 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 3.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 361% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
335 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
How to trade
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