Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Polymarket, closing June 23, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13.6K open interest, suggesting the position is largely static and potentially trapped.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13.6K open interest, suggesting the position is largely static and potentially trapped. The astronomical 1,106% implied yield on the "Yes" side indicates severe mispricing or reflects genuine uncertainty about a relatively unknown candidate, though the flat 7-day price action at 33¢ suggests limited new information flow despite a 1.3/hour info arrival rate. With 67 days to the primary and a 345% realized volatility, this appears to be a speculative position with meaningful cliff risk rather than an efficiently-priced market.
Also on kalshi at 32¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maryland, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maryland Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maryland Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x16711932e48692c37b0be92837cc09c015063d8cbf124e916f393f143d741af0 yes 100