Will the Republican Party win the NY-25 House seat?

This market is pricing Republicans at just 6 cents despite NY-25 being a competitive district, implying an extraordinarily high 2,850% annualized yield for a YES position that reflects severe underpricing relative to historical Republican performance in the seat. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $15.7M open interest and a 0-cent spread suggests illiquidity and potential stale pricing, with the market possibly not reflecting recent polling or demographic shifts in the district. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a mispriced opportunity if Republicans have genuine competitive viability in NY-25, though the high cliff risk index of 16 warrants caution about binary outcome concentration.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade