Will the Republican Party win the WA-10 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing at a stark 8¢ with zero 24-hour volume despite $33k open interest, suggesting this is a stale or illiquid position reflecting Washington's 10th district's strong Democratic lean rather than active market consensus. The extreme 2091.8% implied yield on the Yes side is a mathematical artifact of the low price and should be disregarded—the more meaningful risk-adjusted yield of 1046% still indicates the market sees Republicans as severe underdogs with minimal probability of flipping this seat. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in structural Democratic advantage in this district, though the lack of recent trading activity raises questions about whether this price reflects current political conditions or outdated positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade