Will the Seattle Mariners win more than 88.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Will the Seattle Mariners win more than 88.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Polymarket, closing October 5, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $556.88 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 53¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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51¢
Bid/Ask 30/71¢·Spread 41¢·Vol $0·OI $557.943·Closes Oct 5, 2026·166d remaining
0x18ea0e3d1a4e01d397d27c075418c4c503f6c4d361cd0acd68f6ca69cb02517e
7-day price398 snapshots · 4 regime
54¢51¢ current
Apr 950¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $556.88 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 53¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The massive spread (43¢) and extraordinarily high implied yields (188.5% for Yes, 239.7% for No) reflect the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction about the Mariners' 2026 prospects. With 172 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this market lacks sufficient trading activity to serve as a meaningful probability signal.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "O 88.5" if the Seattle Mariners win more than 88.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Seattle Mariners to record more than 88.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 88.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 211.4%
IY (No) 229.0%
Adj IY 114%
CRI 1
Overround 13.9%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)211.4%
IY (No)229.0%
Adj IY114%
CRI1
Overround13.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
41¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 2:01:09 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x18ea0e3d1a4e01d397d27c075418c4c503f6c4d361cd0acd68f6ca69cb02517e yes 100

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