Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

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52¢
Bid/Ask 28/76¢·Spread 48¢·Vol $0·OI $376.506·Closes Jun 30, 2026·65d remaining
0x1908eac5ccb58e70cd26384d230bade8ba3543d05d97a0e6abdc0218a40f8d90
7-day price19 snapshots · 2 regime
57¢53¢ current
Apr 2548¢Apr 26

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.4%
IY (No) 633.8%
Adj IY 42%
CRI 1
Overround 0.7%
LAS 0.87
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)498.4%
IY (No)633.8%
Adj IY42%
CRI1
Overround0.7%
LAS0.87

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
48¢
Computed
4/26/2026, 1:29:54 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/26/2026, 1:23:50 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x1908eac5ccb58e70cd26384d230bade8ba3543d05d97a0e6abdc0218a40f8d90 yes 100

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