Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

The market has declined 4 cents over seven days to 78¢, suggesting modest erosion in Republican odds despite their historical dominance in South Carolina, though the tight 1¢ spread indicates reasonable liquidity for a mid-term race. The extreme 647% implied yield on "No" reflects the asymmetric risk profile—while Republicans are heavily favored, a Democratic upset would generate outsized returns on minimal capital. With only $28 in 24-hour volume against $12,463 open interest, this market lacks depth for larger position sizing, and the neutral regime score (0.5) suggests sentiment remains stable without conviction either direction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Trade