SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

The 91¢ price reflects extremely high confidence in a SpaceX IPO above $1.2T, but the asymmetric yield profile—592% on the No side versus 5.8% on Yes—signals substantial tail risk that the IPO either doesn't occur or values the company below that threshold by 2027. With zero 24-hour volume and $13.9M open interest, liquidity is thin relative to the market's conviction, and the recent 2¢ decline from 93¢ suggests some profit-taking or emerging skepticism despite the neutral regime score and 623-day runway.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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