Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?

The 28¢ price implies only a 28% probability of SPX reaching $7,800 by end-2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 363.8% annualized yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the risk-adjusted 182% return. With zero 24-hour volume despite $205k open interest and a wide 22¢ spread, this market suffers from severe illiquidity that likely explains the yield anomaly and makes the recent 55% price appreciation (18¢ to 28¢ over 7 days) difficult to interpret as genuine conviction. The 258-day timeframe and "any 1-minute candle" resolution mechanism create cliff risk (index 3), meaning even a brief spike above $7,800 triggers resolution regardless of where SPX closes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

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