Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 17¢ price implying only a 17% probability of 5-6 successful Starship launches in 2026, yet the Yes position offers an extraordinary 743% annualized yield despite 258 days to expiry. The wide 13¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity, while the 1334% realized volatility and recent 4¢ price decline (20¢ to 16¢) indicate this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded position that may not reflect fundamental SpaceX launch cadence expectations. Given SpaceX's demonstrated capability of multiple Starship tests annually and the relatively modest threshold of 5-6 launches reaching 62 miles altitude, the probability appears substantially underpriced, though the low liquidity and high cliff risk (5/10) warrant caution on position sizing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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