Will 50 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at just 4¢ with a massive 3,396% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either deep skepticism about sub-50-vote confirmation or significant mispricing given the wide 8¢ bid-ask spread and zero 24-hour volume. The $1.36M open interest combined with zero recent trading activity and elevated realized volatility (1,846%) indicates illiquidity and potential stale pricing rather than genuine market consensus. With 258 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market may be undervaluing the baseline probability that a Republican-nominated Fed Chair receives at least 50 Senate votes, particularly if Republicans maintain Senate control.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

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