Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?

Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026.

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77¢
Bid/Ask 75/78¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $482.79·OI $14,330.265·Closes Jun 2, 2026·41d remaining
0x21c5db990b49634e0b5598596bacbfaa7890607ae2846e940b4a21b76e1db1c5
7-day price206 snapshots · 2 regime
84¢77¢ current
Apr 872¢Apr 22
Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 75¢+2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 62.2%Close-time delta 3711h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of New Mexico, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New Mexico Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Mexico Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 297.0%
IY (No) 2673.1%
Adj IY 1337%
CRI 3
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)297.0%
IY (No)2673.1%
Adj IY1337%
CRI3

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:57:33 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x21c5db990b49634e0b5598596bacbfaa7890607ae2846e940b4a21b76e1db1c5 yes 100

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