Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?

The market has experienced a dramatic 48% price collapse over seven days (from 23¢ to 12¢), suggesting a significant shift in trader sentiment away from near-term Israeli territorial annexation despite the 74-day window remaining. The extreme implied yield of 3616% on the "Yes" side reflects the severe mispricing typical of low-probability tail events, though the thin $880 daily volume and modest $26k open interest raise liquidity concerns for position sizing. With a Cliff Risk Index of 7 and neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative contrarian play rather than a consensus view, warranting caution given the geopolitical volatility that could rapidly reprice this market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade