Will the Republican Party win the OK-05 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites in OK-05 at 87¢, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean, but the extreme 1217% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity with only $7,166 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 27.2% yield on the "Yes" side combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 7 suggests meaningful uncertainty despite the high price, and with 201 days to expiry, there's ample time for political developments to shift the race, though the flat 7-day price action indicates the market has settled on this valuation.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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