Will Trent Williams be traded?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Trent Williams be traded?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $29k open interest, and the 10¢ spread represents a massive 167% gap between bid-ask prices.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $29k open interest, and the 10¢ spread represents a massive 167% gap between bid-ask prices. The 5854% implied yield on "Yes" is a classic sign of a mispriced long-tail event—the 6¢ price likely reflects minimal trading rather than genuine probability assessment, especially given that Trent Williams (49ers' star left tackle) has shown no trade signals and the July 2026 deadline is nearly 18 months away. The moderate cliff risk index of 16 and neutral regime suggest this is simply a low-conviction, illiquid market rather than one experiencing unusual volatility or consensus shift.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed NFL player is traded by July 22, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x29769ce4ca510fe87180caea44d12e25d8cbc95aaf269feb45795f3db7619922 yes 100