Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing May 31, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x2c955bb77c88c9d7f56b106fc6968175242b9a02802b2cd2193b09493cdd2283 yes 100