Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 40 and 43 inclusive?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $586.7k open interest and a wide 47¢ spread, suggesting the 45¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 328% annualized yield on YES and 427% realized volatility indicate high uncertainty around whether Republican retirements will fall in the narrow 40-43 range, with the market pricing this outcome at less than even odds despite only 136 days to resolution. The recent price decline from 47¢ to 45¢ combined with a 2.39 volatility ratio and 1.3 info arrivals per hour suggests active disagreement among traders, though the lack of trading volume makes it difficult to assess whether this represents genuine repricing or stale quotes.

Resolution rules

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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