Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat?

This WA-03 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.7M open interest, suggesting the $1.7M may represent stale positions. The 9¢ spread and drastically divergent implied yields (67.2% for Yes vs. 491.1% for No) indicate severe pricing inefficiency, with the No side offering outsized compensation relative to the 27% probability—a classic sign of illiquid tail risk. The astronomical 1534% realized volatility and 14.84 vol ratio, combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 3, suggest this market has experienced sharp repricing events, though the modest 2¢ movement over seven days and neutral regime score indicate current stability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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