Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of April?

The Yes position is pricing in only a 15% probability that AAPL closes above $290 by April 30, 2026, yet the implied yield of 18,209% on a Yes bet reflects extreme illiquidity with just $20 in 24-hour volume against $914.8k open interest. The 24-cent spread is notably wide relative to the 15-cent price, and the 1,014% realized volatility combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 6 suggests this market exhibits high uncertainty with only 11 days to expiration, making the astronomical yield figures potentially misleading given the thin liquidity conditions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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