Will the Rolex Index hit $11,850 (LOW) by April 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will the Rolex Index hit $11,850 (LOW) by April 30?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. The Rolex Index LOW market shows extreme mispricing with a 100,000% implied yield on YES contracts despite only an 11-day window to resolution and the index needing to drop from current levels to $11,850 or below.
Analysis
The Rolex Index LOW market shows extreme mispricing with a 100,000% implied yield on YES contracts despite only an 11-day window to resolution and the index needing to drop from current levels to $11,850 or below. Price has collapsed 50% over seven days (from 6¢ to 3¢), suggesting either new bearish information or liquidity-driven selling, though the thin $52 daily volume and $1,437 open interest indicate this micro-liquidity venue may not reflect true market consensus. The 32 Cliff Risk Index and neutral regime score warrant caution—with such extreme yields and minimal trading activity, this appears either significantly mispriced or subject to resolution ambiguity that the market hasn't fully priced in.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Rolex Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x302cfaf320b59f81f20a9b25139b40042762b52217ce03767e261b9caee9695e yes 100