Will the Democratic Party win the NC-10 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1334% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 24.8% on the No side, suggesting deeply mispriced Democratic odds in a district that likely leans Republican. The zero 24-hour volume despite $19.2M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates liquidity has evaporated, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable for actual execution. With 201 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this appears to be a stale or abandoned position rather than an active market reflecting genuine 2026 election expectations.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade