Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

This market is pricing a 45% probability that no UK Prime Minister will be appointed by year-end 2026, implying either political gridlock or a continuation of the current administration through the deadline. The extremely high realized volatility of 396% and elevated implied yield of 174.7% on the "Yes" side suggest significant uncertainty around UK political stability, though the modest 24-hour volume of $496 and $23.5k open interest indicate relatively thin liquidity for such a volatile contract. The 6-cent spread and neutral regime score suggest the market is fairly balanced, though the slight downward price movement from 47¢ to 45¢ over seven days hints at marginal confidence building that a new PM appointment will occur within the timeframe.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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