Will the Republican Party win the NY-09 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a Republican win probability priced at just 5¢ despite NY-09 being a historically competitive district that Republicans have won recently, creating a massive 3,456% implied yield on the Yes side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $41,635 open interest and a wide 2¢ spread suggests severe illiquidity that likely explains the distorted pricing rather than genuine market consensus. The recent price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ over seven days and elevated cliff risk index of 19 warrant caution, as this thin market may experience sharp reversals if liquidity conditions change before the November 2026 resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade