Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?

This FL-27 House market shows Democratic chances at 48¢ with extremely elevated realized volatility of 660% and an implied yield of 198%, suggesting significant uncertainty or potential mispricing despite the relatively balanced probability. The 3.88 vol ratio and high info arrival rate of 1.9 messages per hour indicate active debate, though the thin 24-hour volume of $151.36 against $18.3k open interest raises liquidity concerns for larger position sizing. With 200 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market appears fairly priced at near-parity, but the extreme volatility warrants caution—this could reflect genuine district-level uncertainty or reflect low-liquidity price swings on modest order flow.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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