Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 1.8%?

This market is pricing in an extremely bearish outlook for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the 3¢ price implying only a 3% probability of reaching 1.8% growth—a threshold that appears modest given historical UK growth rates typically exceed this level. The astronomical 43,838% implied yield on the Yes side combined with extreme realized volatility of 11,030% and a vol ratio of 9.14 suggests either severe mispricing, illiquidity-driven distortion, or a genuine expectation of economic contraction, though the thin $122 daily volume and wide spread raise concerns about market reliability. With resolution occurring on the exact close date (May 14, 2026) and a cliff risk index of 32, this market carries substantial execution risk and should be approached cautiously despite the seemingly attractive odds.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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