Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

The market is pricing an extremely low 3% probability of a 50+ basis point Fed rate cut after July 2026, down sharply from 5¢ seven days ago, suggesting growing conviction that such aggressive easing is unlikely given current economic conditions. The astronomical 11,379% implied yield on the "Yes" side reflects the extreme mispricing typical of tail-risk events, while the $83.5M open interest and $6.5M daily volume indicate this is a moderately liquid contract despite the lopsided odds. With 104 days to expiry and a zero spread, the market appears efficiently priced for a baseline scenario, though the 32 Cliff Risk Index suggests potential for sharp repricing if economic data deteriorates significantly before the July 2026 FOMC meeting.

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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