Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat?

The Republican probability in NJ-07 has declined 6 cents over seven days to 27¢, suggesting Democratic momentum in this traditionally competitive district. The 498.1% implied yield on the Yes side combined with extremely thin liquidity ($16 daily volume, $5.7M open interest) and a massive 14¢ spread creates significant execution risk, though the 2,151% realized volatility indicates this market has experienced substantial price swings historically. With 198 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a low-information market where large positions could move prices substantially.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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