Will the Democratic Party win the CT-05 House seat?

This market prices Democrats at a commanding 89% to retain Connecticut's 5th district, though the 7¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest minimal liquidity despite $7.8M open interest. The extreme 1,469% implied yield on the "No" outcome combined with a realized volatility of 437% and cliff risk index of 8 indicates severe mispricing or structural illiquidity—the market may be overconfident in the Democratic baseline given the district's historical leanings. With 201 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 2.9 signals per hour, significant price movement could occur as the 2026 cycle develops, making this a high-risk position for contrarian bettors despite the current consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade