Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $3,958 open interest, suggesting the 14¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the massive 878% implied yield on the Yes side and 958% realized volatility. The 5¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the recent 2¢ decline from 16¢ over seven days combined with a high cliff risk index of 6 indicates potential structural instability in pricing. With 255 days to expiration and an information arrival rate of 0.8 events per hour, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this quote until meaningful volume materializes.

Resolution rules

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Regime

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