Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 2.5%?

With just 7 days until resolution and the market pricing a 56% probability of South Korea achieving 2.5%+ Q1 2026 GDP growth, this contract faces imminent cliff risk as the Bank of Korea's advance estimate releases on April 23. The extreme implied yields (6974% for No) and 500% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty despite modest recent price appreciation from 53¢ to 56¢, while the thin $161k daily volume and tight 2¢ spread indicate limited liquidity for a market about to resolve on hard economic data. The 2.9 info arrivals per hour and neutral regime suggest traders are actively positioning ahead of the official release, making this a data-dependent binary event with minimal time for repricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10 The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01

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Regime

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