What will China GDP growth be in 2026?
Leader sits at 74% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
50¢
4.0–5.0%
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$600K
liquid
Closes
Jul 15, 2026
0 days
Cross-venue
K11+P9
19pp gap
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 41¢ · Polymarket 22¢ · 19pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (22¢, 9 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (41¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q3 2026 be above” vs “China Annual GDP Growth 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q3 2026 be above
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q3 2026 be above 2.3%?
KXBRAZILGDP-26DEC02-T2.3
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q3 2026 be above 1.7%?
KXBRAZILGDP-26DEC02-T1.7
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q3 2026 be above 2.1%?
KXBRAZILGDP-26DEC02-T2.1
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q3 2026 be above 2.0%?
KXBRAZILGDP-26DEC02-T2.0
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q3 2026 be above 2.2%?
KXBRAZILGDP-26DEC02-T2.2
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q3 2026 be above 1.9%?
KXBRAZILGDP-26DEC02-T1.9
Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q3 2026 be above 1.8%?
KXBRAZILGDP-26DEC02-T1.8
Cluster 2
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0%
0x4ab00a…b071
China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 9.0%+
0x827e8d…62e0
China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 6.0-7.0%
0xa28162…113c
China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 3.0–4.0%
0x51cd99…75e5
China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 5.0–6.0%
0x0d85d1…8ada
Cluster 3
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $240 billion?
KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T240
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $300 billion?
KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T300
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $220 billion?
KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T220
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $280 billion?
KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T280
Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $260 billion?
KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T260
Cluster 4
Will China announce
Will China announce looser rare-earth export curbs to the U.S. in Sep 2026?
KXCHINARARE-26-26OCT01
Will China announce a new Boeing aircraft order in Sep 2026?
KXCHINABOEING-26-26OCT01
Will China announce additional U.S. agricultural purchases in Sep 2026?
KXCHINAAGPURCHASE-26-26OCT01
Analysis
There is currently no direct prediction market data regarding China's 2026 GDP growth figures. However, investor sentiment regarding Chinese assets is reflected in the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) trading at $34.12, with prediction markets assigning only a 9% chance that U.S. imports of goods from China remain below $220 billion for the full year 2026.
- ›FXI ETF at $34.12
- ›low probability of significant US-China trade contraction
- ›geopolitical risk via export/trade curbs
- ›KWEB and MCHI asset volatility
What moved the line
- Sep 17Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $260 billion?↓42pp45→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $300 billion?↓35pp63→28¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $300 billion?↑28pp35→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $280 billion?↓25pp29→4¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $260 billion?↑9pp3→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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