What will China GDP growth be in 2026?
Leader sits at 74% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
50¢
Will France GDP growth rate
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$520K
liquid
Closes
Jul 15, 2026
0 days
Cross-venue
K15+P9
12pp gap
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 43¢ · Polymarket 31¢ · 12pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (31¢, 9 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (43¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above” vs “China Annual GDP Growth 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.6%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T0.6
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 1.8%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T1.8
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T-0.2
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 1.6%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T1.6
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.6%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T-0.6
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T-0.4
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.0%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T0.0
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 1.4%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T1.4
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 1.0%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T1.0
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 1.2%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T1.2
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T0.2
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 2.0%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T2.0
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 2.2%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T2.2
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T0.4
Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.8%?
KXFRGDPYOYP-26JUL30-T0.8
Cluster 2
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0%
0x4ab00a…b071
China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 9.0%+
0x827e8d…62e0
China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 5.0–6.0%
0x0d85d1…8ada
China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 1.0–2.0%
0x7589dc…f40f
China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 3.0–4.0%
0x51cd99…75e5
Analysis
Market evidence is not negligible: polymarket "China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0%" 86¢; kalshi "Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%?" 99¢; kalshi "Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.6%?" 99¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.
- ›Lack of direct GDP prediction markets
- ›MCHI China ETF up 1.73%
- ›KWEB China Internet ETF up 1.52%
- ›EEM Emerging Markets down 0.98%
- ›ASHR China A-Shares down 2.48%
What moved the line
- Jul 19Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?↓81pp94→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?↑29pp13→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%?↓27pp90→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%?↓25pp90→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%?↓19pp63→44¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 30% · 2d
- Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 3.4%last 74% · 5d
- Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 95% · 20d
- Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 95% · 20d
- Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 93% · 20d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.