Will the Democratic Party win the WI-06 House seat?

This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with zero 24-hour volume despite $22,354 in open interest, suggesting the 17¢ price may not reflect true consensus valuation. The 888.1% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the low price rather than genuine expected returns, indicating potential mispricing in a district where Democrats historically underperform. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market has adequate time for price discovery, but the combination of minimal liquidity, sharp recent price movement (15¢ to 17¢), and extreme yield asymmetry warrants caution about treating this as a reliable probability estimate for Wisconsin's 6th district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade