Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

The market is pricing an 18% probability that United Russia will underperform the 280-seat threshold, but the extreme 1229% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $15.5K open interest is modest for a binary with 156 days to expiry. The dramatic 7-day price movement from 2¢ to 17¢ and realized volatility of 2338% indicate either a significant information arrival event or thin order book dynamics, particularly given the 2.91 volume ratio and 1.0 info arrivals per hour, making this market highly speculative and potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

Resolution rules

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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