Will Billy Mawhiney be the Democratic Nominee for SD-AL?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will Billy Mawhiney be the Democratic Nominee for SD-AL?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. Billy Mawhiney's odds have deteriorated significantly, dropping from 3¢ to 2¢ over seven days, suggesting diminishing viability as a Democratic nominee for South Dakota's at-large House seat with just 47 days until the June 2, 2026 primary.
Analysis
Billy Mawhiney's odds have deteriorated significantly, dropping from 3¢ to 2¢ over seven days, suggesting diminishing viability as a Democratic nominee for South Dakota's at-large House seat with just 47 days until the June 2, 2026 primary. The extreme implied yield of 25,264% on the "Yes" side reflects the illiquidity trap typical of long-shot candidates—zero 24-hour volume and a tight $10,690 open interest mean any position would face severe slippage. The 3,199% realized volatility and high cliff risk index (32) indicate this market experiences sharp, discontinuous price movements, likely driven by sparse information arrivals (0.6/hour), making it unreliable for serious capital allocation.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the South Dakota at-large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Trade
sf trade 0x43c4ebd4d5b162d369aa693115803f4d3f0e28868402a54532ca3929d30d9db3 yes 100