SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner: Nikki Gronli
SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner: Nikki Gronli
0x2470f7…0afe
Analysis
The SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner market prices the leader at 96%, reflecting very high confidence in one candidate's nomination prospects. This probability aggregates sentiment across two linked contracts on Polymarket, though trading volume remains relatively modest at $816 over 24 hours. The current price suggests the frontrunner has substantial structural advantages—likely including name recognition, fundraising capacity, endorsements, or clear organizational support—that would need to shift materially to change the outcome. Key variables that could move this probability include unexpected candidate withdrawals, significant endorsement changes, polling data shifts, or late-breaking campaign developments. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this market, determining whether the pricing accurately reflected on-the-ground dynamics.
- ›Current 96% price implies roughly 1-in-25 odds for all other candidates combined, indicating market consensus around a dominant frontrunner rather than a competitive field
- ›Polymarket volume of $816 in 24 hours suggests limited real-money conviction relative to other 2026 primary races—lower liquidity may inflate extreme probabilities
- ›Two bound contracts structure means the 96% leader and 17% runner-up do not sum to 100%, indicating either pricing inefficiency or untraded outcome possibilities
- ›Top comparison races show wide probability dispersion (16¢ to 80¢), suggesting 2026 Democratic primaries range from contested to heavily predetermined based on current market assessment
- ›Resolution depends entirely on official primary results; no intermediate polling or organizational data will settle the market before the election date
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...last 97% · 1d
- Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 53-55last 48% · 1d
- Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29last 53% · 1d
- Will the White House Press Secretary say Radical Left at her next press briefinglast 15% · 2d
- # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 3last 50% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
California Governor Primary Shakes Up: Hilton Soars, Steyer Crashes
Steve Hilton's probability to advance to the California governor runoff jumped 35¢ to 89¢ after a new poll showed him in second place, while Tom Steyer collapsed 38¢ to 10¢. The runoff now looks likely to be between Becerra and Hilton.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.